Weekly Market Outlook | Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly expiry strategy for 01 JUL EXP

Every time someone asked me about my recommendation for any particular stock, I just requested one thing to them. Have you done your proper calculation before entre into this trade? Like why you took this trade? Or What should be the max risk you are willing to take with this trade? In this Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly expiry strategy post, We will discuss why it is essential to do proper calculation before entre into a trade?

We are getting the most common question: I took this trade at 320₹, and now it is trading at 280₹. What should I do? As per my knowledge and experience, I feel no one can give you the answer except you. Because only you know how much you can effort to lose in a particular trade.

Successful trading is not just about placing the right trade; It’s all about how you are managing your wrong trade. Because if you can manage your wrong trades, you know what you are doing and how to handle things.

Because wrong trades are the ones that will test your knowledge, experience, and behaviour. If you come out successfully without losing much from a wrong trade, that means now you are on the right track.

People are trading based on their gut feeling. They are taking trades based on someone’s advice. They are not calculating the risk associated with that trade. They are taking trades based on the hope that this trade will work. That’s the reason when a trade goes against their expectations, they start a panic.

For a small job, we studied for 25 years. But here in stock trading, we don’t want to give even 25 days to learn and the next 25 days to implement. Everyone wants a quick return.

If someone shared a strategy or a trade, why are we not analysing whether this trade fits in my risk management rules? Now how can we prepare ourselves for any unexpected movement?

Before entre into a trade, we should follow few things:

• Pick one segment or product that suits your risk appetite and trade only in that segment. Don’t change it every day.
• Every time you want to take a trade, Calculate the risk first. Ask yourself “Can you afford to lose that amount?”
• Every recovery plan should be ready before you enter any trade like what should be your stop-loss and target? If stop-loss hit come out as quickly as you can.
• If you want to take some advice from someone, ask him before entre into a trade. Don’t change your decisions in between the trade.

One thing we should always keep in mind that, Target is not in our hands. Only stop-loss is. So we have to keep more focus on the things that are in our hands like entry and Stop-loss.

If you do these calculations before entre into a trade, you will find that your trading is more systematic now. And if you trade systematically, chances are high to make decent money from this market.

Now it’s your turn. Make a promise to yourself that you will do proper calculation before entre into a trade. If you need any help from me, just ask me in the comment box I will love to answer all your queries.

If you want to learn and trade with me with proper handholding support for Options hedging strategies, can enrol in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship program

Nifty weekly expiry strategy analysis

As I share in the last Nifty and Bank nifty weekly expiry strategy post that 15500 is a psychological level, and Nifty should hold this level to go higher.

On 18th June, we saw a decline till 15500 but later it recovered from day low and proved that 15500 is acting as a good support here.

This whole week we saw Nifty was trading in the range of 15500 – 15900. Which could be the range for the coming session until we are not getting any breakout or breakdown from this level.

Nowadays Market is trading at higher level and we can’t neglect a possibility of profit booking from here. So I suggest either book profit and reduce your position in Market or buy some puts to hedge your portfolio.

As per the chart, Nifty is making higher-Highs and Higher-Lows, indicating that trend is UP until we are not getting a breakdown from the rising trendline touching HL (higher-lows).

On the Upside 15950 – 16000 is acting as the breakout zone and a breakout will give further upside levels till 16250. On the downside, 15500 is acting as a strong support level. A breakdown will give us a SELL signal again for the target of 15350 & 15000..

So these are the levels we should keep in mind:

• Breakout from 16000 = BUY,
• Breakdown from 15450 = SELL
• Trading between 15950 – 15500 = Range-bound

Nifty Weekly expiry option chain analysis

Based on the Option chain data, We can see highest Open Interest is at 15800 CE & same 15800 PE followed by 15900 CE and 15000 PE. Highest OI at CE indicates as the resistance level and highest OI at PE indicates as the support level.

PCR is also a good indicator to analyze immediate support and resistance levels. If PCR of any particular strike is below 0.60, this indicates an immediate support level and if PCR is above 2.0 that indicates an immediate resistance level.

At 15700, PCR value is 2.47, indicating an immediate support level and PCR at 15900 is 0.15, indicating an immediate resistance level.

• Read detailed article here: How to find Support and Resistance using Put Call Ratio or PCR?

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior, so that you can adjust your position accordingly. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest for weekly option hedging strategies. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Nifty weekly expiry Strategy: Iron Condor

Possible adjustments:

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 15600 & 16000 for this strategy. Means square off if you find nifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that Nifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 15600, then square off call spread and bring it down to 300 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 16000. You can shift your put spread to 300 points up.

If you want to learn these Nifty and BankNifty weekly option strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program(50% OFF).

Bank Nifty Weekly expiry strategy

After given a breakout from 35000, you saw that Bank nifty was trading in a range of 35000 to 36000 and any decline till 34000 can be treat as a buy-on-dips opportunity.

We got the decline on 18th June but later it recovered and closed near its important level at 35000. Now 35000 to 36200 is the range we may expect in the coming week. A breakout from 36000 will lead to the next upside target of 37700.

If you look at the chart, you will find that on the downside 34000 is acting as a strong support level, and on the upside 37700 is acting as a strong resistance level. This can be our range (34000 – 37700) for the short term.

The same view for this coming week also: The overall trend is UP so any decline till 34000 can be treat as a buy-on-dips opportunity. We can expect some further upside levels if banknifty manage to sustain above 35000. So these two levels (34000 & 35000) are important for the short to medium term. Right now the market is totally unpredictable so we have to focus more on risk management.

Your risk management rules for every trade must be properly defined. Do not take any trade which has an unlimited risk on either side. If you are good to analyze trend then you can go with some directional credit spreads like Bear call spread and bull put spread.

Bank Nifty weekly expiry option chain analysis

Based on the Option chain data, We can see the highest Open Interest is at 35000 CE & the same 35000 PE followed by 15900 CE and 15000 PE. Highest OI at CE indicates the resistance level and the highest OI at PE indicates the support level.

PCR is also a good indicator to analyze immediate support and resistance levels. If PCR of any particular strike is below 0.60, this indicates an immediate support level and if PCR is above 2.0 that indicates an immediate resistance level.

At 34500, PCR value is 3.13, indicating an immediate support level and PCR at 35500 is 0.20, indicating an immediate resistance level. So based on the OI data, the weekly range can be 34500 – 35500 and the broad range could be 34000 – 36000.

• Read detailed article here: How to find Support and Resistance using Put Call Ratio or PCR?

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behaviour, so that you can adjust your position accordingly. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest for weekly option hedging strategies. Just enrol for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Bank Nifty weekly expiry Strategy: Iron Condor

Possible adjustments:

If you find that BankNifty gives a breakdown and sustaining below 34500, then Shift your Call spread to 1000 points down.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 35800. You can shift your put spread to 1000 points up.

If you want to learn these bank nifty weekly expiry strategy and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program(50% OFF).

Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to the Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly expiry strategy. You can ask any question related to option trading in the comment box.

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*(Please avoid any question like which Call or Put we should buy in the coming week).

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DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Views or the nifty and bank nifty weekly expiry strategy posted here only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting specified analysis methods.  This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.