Nifty & Bank Nifty Predictions for July 3rd | Market Outlook
Get expert insights into Nifty50 and Bank Nifty predictions for July 3rd, 2024. Analyze key trends, global events, and potential market impact.
Hello dear friend, in this Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for tomorrow blog post, we will try to analyse trends based on technical charts and Open Interest data. We also try to find important support and resistance in Nifty and BankNifty.
So read the post till the end to know, how to create a trading plan today based on the trend and levels.
Nifty50 Continues Bullish Charge Amidst Mixed Signals
The Indian stock market, led by the Nifty50 index, extended its impressive rally this week, building on last week's strong gains. However, the broader market landscape reveals a more complex picture.
Key Takeaways:
- Nifty50 Powering Ahead: The benchmark Nifty50 index maintains its upward momentum, reflecting investor confidence and positive market sentiment.
- Bank Nifty Stalls: The banking sector, represented by the Bank Nifty index, is encountering resistance at higher levels, putting a temporary brake on its upward trajectory.
- Mid & Small-Cap Wobble: Recent selling pressure in mid-cap and small-cap stocks could potentially disrupt the ongoing bullish trend in the broader market.
- Sectoral Divide: While IT, media, and real estate stocks are leading the gains today, banking and FMCG stocks are facing selling pressure.
- Bank Nifty Breakout Watch: The Bank Nifty index is currently trading sideways, and a breakout is crucial to ignite a fresh rally in the banking sector.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow i.e. July 3rd, 2024
The short-term outlook for the Nifty50 remains positive, with the potential for further upward movement if it can maintain its current momentum. However, the stalling Bank Nifty introduces uncertainty.
- Nifty50: We anticipate continued bullishness in the Nifty50, but caution is advised as the mid and small-cap weakness could trigger a broader market correction.
- Bank Nifty: A decisive breakout above the current resistance level is needed for the Bank Nifty to resume its upward trajectory. Until then, expect sideways trading or a minor pullback.
Key Global Events Impacting Indian Markets on July 3rd:
- New York Fed President John Williams Speech (6:30 AM IST): Williams' comments on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy could influence global investor sentiment and potentially impact the Indian market. Hawkish remarks might lead to a risk-off sentiment and negatively affect Indian stocks.
- U.S. Economic Data Releases (8:15 AM - 10:00 AM IST): The ADP employment report, initial jobless claims, U.S. trade deficit, and factory orders data will provide insights into the U.S. economy's health. Stronger-than-expected data could further strengthen the dollar and potentially put pressure on emerging markets like India.
- ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM IST): This crucial data point gauges the health of the U.S. services sector, a major driver of the American economy. A significant deviation from expectations could trigger volatility in global markets, including India.
- Minutes of Fed's June FOMC Meeting (2:00 PM IST): The minutes will offer insights into the Fed's discussions and deliberations on interest rate policy. Any hints of a hawkish stance or potential rate hikes could lead to capital outflows from emerging markets, impacting the Indian stock market.
Outlook:
Investors should closely monitor the Bank Nifty's movement, the performance of mid and small-cap stocks, and the aforementioned global events. These factors will collectively shape the overall market direction in the near term. While the Nifty50 shows promise, the broader market's health and global economic developments will remain key concerns for investors.
Sachin Sival
Nifty and BankNifty Prediction Based on the chart
- Nifty continued its upside rally and made a new all-time high i.e. 24236.35 today. We have seen some profit booking also from higher levels that results closing in red today.
- If tomorrow, Nifty manages to hold 24000, then we may see a new high tomorrow else Nifty may fall in the range of 23500 - 24000 again.
- BankNifty is trading with red candles because we have seen selling pressure from the 52780 levels. Now if this selling pressure continued, we may see 51350 in the coming sessions.
Now after looking at chart, we can say that short term trend looks bullish in Nifty and Neutral to bearish BankNifty for tomorrow.Follow data and chart and trade accordingly.
Based on the short-term trends, we can create a mild bullish strategy in Nifty and a neutral strategy in BankNifty.
Keep one thing in mind while creating your option strategies both the indices trading near support or resistance levels. So keep yourself prepared for some consolidation or reversal. So choose your strategy wisely.
Nifty And Bank Nifty Prediction based on Open Interest data
- For Nifty: 24000 is acting as immediate support with a PCR at 2.54 and resistance is at 22400 with a PCR at 0.38. Max pain is at 22100.
- For BankNifty: 52000 is acting as immediate support with PCR at 2.91 and 52600 as immediate resistance with PCR at 0.15. Max pain is at 52500.
- Expiry Range:
- For Nifty = 24000 - 24200.
- For BankNifty = 52000 - 52500 ( based on current OI data. Keep following change in OI for further levels)
The intraday trend was “Neutral” in Nifty and "Bearish" in BankNifty on July 02, 2024. (based on our trend-following sheet and setup)
Important Levels and Option Strategies for July 02, 2024
Tomorrow is Bank Nifty weekly expiry. So we may see some highly volatile sessions.
Because of the trend and high volatility, we should create some credit strategies only. I suggest we should trade limited risk strategies only:
- For Banknifty, We can create an iron butterfly while keeping 52300 as the max pain.
- We can sell 52300 CE and PE and we can buy 2000 OTM CE & PE, based on the current data.
Important: You should keep in mind that the above trades are based on the current data and need some adjustments if data changes. So proper knowledge and understanding are required before taking entry into any position.
If you don't know how to create and manage these option strategies, Option Strategies: A Mentorship Program 4.0 would be the best online course for option trading.
I have also shared my Intraday strategies and trend-following trading setup in a small course. You can click on the below link to get access to the course.
DISCLAIMER: We are not SEBI research analysts. Views and trading strategies are posted in this blog post, only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline for interpreting specified analysis methods. This information should only be used by investors and traders aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.
