The WeeklyTrade – Best Weekly Indian Market Outlook for 15th September Expiry

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Hello Guys, I hope you are doing well. In this edition of our weekly market newsletter (Weekly Indian Market Outlook), we will cover the weekly Indian market outlook, important levels, sector analysis, a few stock analyses, and option hedging strategies for weekly income.

This is the advanced version of our previous weekly Indian market outlook articles. This 5-section weekly newsletter is full of valuable information, but as you know, nothing is perfect, so your valuable feedback is highly required.

So, without wasting your time, Let’s start with our first segment i.e. Weekly India Market Outlook

Weekly Indian Market Outlook and Important levels

In this section of our weekly market newsletter. I will share the weekly Indian market summary and try to find the trend and levels for the coming week. So read it carefully and if you have any queries feel free to type in the comment box.

In the week gone by, the global stock market rallied as softer than expected US inflation data suggested a slower pace of rate hike. The next Fed rate hike is, therefore, likely to be 50 bp and not 75 bps. US CPI inflation smoothened to 8.5% in July as lower energy prices offset increase in food and shelter costs.

On the flip side, as per Nomura holding, many of the world’s leading economies will fall into a recession within the next 12 months as central banks move to aggressively tighten monetary policy to fight surging inflation.

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The fall in US inflation, better earnings growth in June FY23 quarter and consistent buying by FIIs lifted the sentiments of the market participants.

With core inflation continuing to hover well above the upper tolerance limit, the RBI increased the repo rate by 50 bps, broadly in line with market expectations.

In another development, RBI tightened norms for digital lending to prevent charging of exorbitant interest rates by certain entities and also check unethical loan recovery practices.

Now the focus of the investors is on the geopolitical tensions, volatility in global financial markets, and emerging risk of the global recession besides other factors.

Let us look at the chart to understand the trend based on the technical:

Weekly Analysis and Important levels for Nifty

Nifty Chart Today

We saw a very good recovery from lower levels in the last 2 months that indicates that value buying has been started in the market. And Market has made it’s bottom.

If you look at the Fibonacci levels, 16900 to 17300 (50% to 61.8% levels) was the reversal zone. Nifty broke and manage to sustain above this range without any pressure that indicates that there is no sign of weakness in the Nifty based on the charts.

Now, 17700 to 17900 is the range that can act as resistance because there is a trendline resistance around 17700 & 17900 is 78.6% retracement level.

Now two things you should keep in mind here:

  1. Nifty may face resistance around 17700 – 17900 level and drop again till 17300 (61.8% retracement levels which is acting as the support now) to gain strength for it’s upward journey again.
  2. Nifty may successfully gave a breakout and hit the psychological level of 18000.

In both the cases, Nifty is not looking weak from here but we need to keep a hedge with our portfolio because global volatility is high that may initiate a profit booking in the market.

So we need to trade a little cautious here. Don’t just take aggressive long or short positions here. Wait for some breakout. Right now Nifty is in BUY-on-dips condition till it is trading above 16500 level, so keep 16500 as the stoploss for your long positions.

I will buy around 18000 after a breakout from 17900 or around 17300 if Nifty cames down a little to gain strength.

If you have long positions in your portfolio then it’s time to hedge your portfolio. Do not take aggressive long positions for the short term.

Trade Plan for the coming week: If Nifty manages to give a breakout from 18000 the creates a long position for the next target of 18600. And If Nifty manages to hold 17700 – 17900 then wait for some downside till 17300 and then create long position with a stop loss above 16500.

Volatility is still high, which is giving a good chance to deploy some limited risk range-bound strategies for the coming week expiry.

If you don’t know how to deploy these range-bound strategies, can learn from our Mentorship program. Hit the below button to know more:

Weekly Analysis and Important levels for BankNifty

BankNifty Chart - weekly indian market outlook

Almost the Same setup we can see in BankNifty. With a good upside rally BankNifty hit a new 52 week high of 39088.90 and closed above it’s reversal zone (50% – 61.8%) without any pressure or hurdle. That indicates a complete bullish trend in BankNifty.

Now, 39400 – 39800 is acting as the resistance zone for the coming week. A breakout will activate the new upside target of 41000 in short to medium term in BankNifty.

On the downside, 35800 is acting as the support level and a breakdown from 35800 will drag BankNifty again in the zone of the bear.

Now if you are holding a long trade, then hold it with a revised stoploss of 35800. If you don’t have any long position in BankNifty then either take a new bet above 40000 or wait for a small correction till 38200 for a new long position while keeping stoploss below 35800 for the coming session.

The next target in BankNifty is 32900.

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As a safe trader, I prefer to trade with a limited risk range-bound strategy here. That I will share in the next section of this weekly newsletter.

Derivative Analysis of Nifty and BankNifty

From derivative front call writers seen adding hefty open interest at 17800 strike and holds more than 60 lakh shares.

On flip side put writers holds maximum open interest of nearly 45 lakh shares at 17500 strike.

Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 11.95% while that for put options closed at 15.48%.

The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 17.61%.

PCR OI for the week closed at 1.01.

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Sector analysis – Weekly Indian Market Outlook

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter. I will try to analyze the different sectors. We will pick 2-3 sectors that we can keep on the radar for the coming week.

Almost all the sectors closed in green with heavy buying seen by FIIs in the market this week.

Metal and banking stocks are the top gainer this week. Closed with more than 4% profit this week.

Buying in all sectors is creating a smile on the face of investers. We may see some more upside levels in the coming week.

In most of the sectors, we can see some buying from the lower levels. For the next week, you can keep the Nifty MIDCAP and Nifty FMCG sectors on your Radar, giving bullish breakout. Let us look at the chart:

Sectors Chart - weekly indian market outlook

All the sectors like Midcaps, small caps, banking, etc are in a bullish trend and we may see some more upside levels in these sectors.

The nifty MIDCAP sector has given a fresh breakout from its important support level this week so this could be on your watching list. BHARATFORGE, HAL & TORRENT has given a fresh breakout from their important resistance levels. So you can keep these stocks in your watchlist for short to medium term prospectives.

So overall trend of the market is strong and we may expect some consolidation with a UPSIDE movement.

Stocks to buy for short term today

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share a few stocks that look good for a short-term view based on purely technical. To find these stocks I’m just scanning stocks those giving a fresh breakout from their 52-week high and volumes are quite impressive. So this week’s stocks are:

1- TATELXSI: CMP: 10238.05

TATAELXSI - Stock to buy for short term today

In the last couple of sessions, we have seen a very good buying interest in this stock. Volumes are quite impressive and giving a breakout its 52-week high zone.

Looks good for medium-term prospects for the targets of 18% to 22%. For short term, You can keep a stoploss below 8500 and if you can hold for the long-term can keep a stoploss below 7300.

Performace – last week’s picks

Performace - Stocks to buy today
Please Note: I’m using 20000₹ for every stock to maintain diversification.

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Open Interest Analysis for the coming week

In this segment of our weekly Indian market Outlook newsletter, I will share my view and analysis about open Interest data. We will try to find the important support, resistance and the range of market for the coming week.

Nifty Option Chain analysis – Weekly Indian Market Outlook

Nifty Open Interest analysis for 18th August 2022

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 17800 CE & 17000 PE, followed by 18000 CE & 17500 PE. PCR of all strikes is 101, which indicates a neutral market. PCR at 17500 stands at 3.3, which is acting as an immediate support level. The second support stands at 17000 with a PCR of 10.

The Put-call ratio at 17800 stands at 0.15, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, the important indicator “Options Pain” is at 17650, indicating weekly expiry at 17650. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup on the CALL sides indicates that Nifty is facing good resistance from higher levels. Based on Option chain data, 17500 and 17000 are acting as good support levels. On the other hand 17800, and 18000 are acting as good resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

BankNifty Option Chain analysis

BankNifty Open Interest chart

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 40000 CE & 39000 PE, followed by 39500 CE & 38500 PE. PCR of all strikes is 1.20, which indicates an oversold market. PCR at 38500 stands at 4.43, which is acting as an immediate support level.

The Put-call ratio at 39500 stands at 0.06, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, the important indicator “Options Pain” is at 39000, indicating weekly expiry at 39000. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup on the CALL sides indicates that Nifty is facing good resistance from higher levels. Based on Option chain data, 38500 and 38000 are acting as good support levels. On the other hand 39500, and 40000 are acting as good resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Weekly Options Strategies for 18th August Expiry

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share weekly option Strategies for coming expiry with adjustments. So watch this space for limited risk weekly option strategies.

Nifty weekly Option Strategy for 18th August Expiry

Nifty weekly Option strategy for 18th August

Possible adjustments for Nifty weekly Option Strategy

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 17500 & 17900 for this strategy. Means square off if you find nifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that Nifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 17500, then square off the call spread and bring it down to 300 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 18000. You can shift your put spread to 300 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

BankNifty weekly Option Strategy for 18th August Expiry

BankNifty weekly Option strategy for 18th August

Possible adjustments for BankNifty weekly Option Strategy

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 38400 & 39600 for this strategy. Means square off if you find banknifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that BankNifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 38400, then square off the call spread and bring it down to 800 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 39600. You can shift your put spread to 800 points up.


If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Much Check this also- 

Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to this weekly Indian market Outlook. You can ask any question related to options trading in the comment box.

If you need More real-time assistance on the Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly expiry strategy or want to deploy these hedging strategies for monthly Income, Can take our premium subscription or open a trading account with us and you will get real-time assistance every month on these Options hedging strategies. You can contact us on WhatsApp.



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Best Option Strategy for Intraday in Nifty and BankNifty

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DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Views are posted in this weekly market newsletter only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting specified analysis methods.  This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.


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Sachin Sival is the founder and CEO of Replete Equities, an options trading company that specializes in delta hedging. A self-taught trader, Sachin has a passion for volatility trading and stock trading. Sachin loves to hone his skills by reading up on new strategies and techniques as well as taking part in industry events. In addition to being a successful entrepreneur, Sachin also takes pleasure in photography - as a hobby.

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