Weekly Analysis and Options Strategy For 17th March 2022 Expiry

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Hello friend, I hope you are safe and healthy. Nowadays, the market is highly volatile. In this type of market, your risk management plays a major role. Without proper risk management is hard to service. That’s the reason, in mostly all my weekly analysis posts, I’m giving more importance to Risk management.

In this type of market always try to protect your capital and take a precalculated risk only. Don’t try to fight with the market, Just focus on your survival. If you manage to survive, profit will come automatically.

Remember one thing: We don’t need to do anything for our target. Target will come automatically, it’s not in our hands.

The only market knows what will happen next. But one thing is in our hands, that is our risk or stop-loss.

If we keep following our stop loss and focus on “RISK MANAGEMENT”, the market will reward you by itself. So focus on how to minimize risk and let the market do whatever it wants to do.

Keep your positions with proper hedge and buy good quality stocks at every fall in this market for your medium to long-term perspective.

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Nifty chart this week:

Nifty Weekly Analysis

In my last weekly analysis and options strategy post I shared that: if you look at the Fibonacci tool you will find that 16377 & 15852 are acting as the important levels. If Nifty manages to sustain above this zone then we may see some recovery from lower levels and a breakdown from 15852 will drag nifty to the lower level till 15100.

Now look at the chart, you will find that On 07th March, despite the big gap down, Nifty manages to hold 15852 and closed at 15863.15. The next day we saw a sharp recovery from lower levels that helps nifty to close above 16377 on 10th March.

Now again 15852 – 16377 is acting as the reversal zone and if Nifty manages to sustain above this zone, we may see some recovery in the market.

The overall trend is Neutral, and there is no clear sign of a trend. So a range-bound strategy is advisable here.

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Open Interest Analysis:

weekly nifty open interest
Weekly analysis

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 17500 CE & 16000 PE, followed by 17000 CE & 16500 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.8, which is a neutral zone. PCR at 16300 stands at 4.42, which is acting as an immediate support level, PCR at 17000 stands at 0.05, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, substantial indicator Option Pain is at 16600, indicating weekly expiry at 16600. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

The volatility is high in the market, so Need to track closely for any further shift in range as per option chain analysis.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participants’ behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Nifty Weekly Option Strategy: Modified Iron Condor

nifty weekly option strategies

Possible adjustments for Nifty weekly option strategy

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 16200 & 17100 for this strategy. Means square off if you find nifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that Nifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 16200, then square off call spread and bring it down to 500 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 17100. You can shift your put spread to 500 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Weekly Analysis: Banknifty chart this week:

Bank Nifty chart

This week we saw some wild movement due to the global crisis. BankNifty broke its previous support level 34000 and made a fresh low of 32155.35.

In my last weekly market update post, I have said that: The overall trend is DOWN, and a short trade is advisable below 35800 for the target of 35000 & 34000. But it would be best if you kept your position with a proper hedge. Use tight stop losses for your long or short positions or use options to limit your downside risk.

After a Gap-down on Monday, we saw a sharp recovery from lower levels. but the overall trend is still DOWN and any upside should be treated as a sell-on rising opportunity until banknifty is not closing above 35500.

On the upper side, 36500 is the crucial resistance level and a long trade will trigger only after a successful breakout from 36500.

Bank Nifty option chain analysis

Bank Nifty weekly open interest

Based on option chain data, the highest open interest stands at 36000 CE & 33000 PE followed by 35000 CE & 34000 PE. PCR of all strikes stands at 0.81, which is a neutral zone. PCR at 34000 stands at 4.46, which is acting as an immediate support zone. PCR at 35500 stands at 0.05, which is acting as an immediate resistance zone. Option pain stands at 34600, giving us an expiry level. Keep tracking this option pain level. A shift in option pain will provide a new standard for expiry.

Bank Nifty options strategy:

Banknifty weekly option strategy

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 33100 & 35900 for this strategy. Means square off if you find banknifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that BankNifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 33000, then square off call spread and bring it down to 1500 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 36000. You can shift your put spread to 1500 points up.

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To learn the advanced adjustments, you can enroll to our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program

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Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to the Weekly analysis and Weekly option strategy. You can ask any question related to options trading in the comment box.

If you need More real-time assistance on the Nifty and Banknifty weekly analysis and option strategies, Can take our premium subscription or open a trading account with us and you will get real-time assistance every month on these weekly option strategies. You can contact us on WhatsApp.



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DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Views posted in this weekly analysis post and weekly options strategies are only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline for interpreting specified analysis methods.  This information should only be used by investors and traders aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.

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Sachin Sival is the founder and CEO of Replete Equities, an options trading company that specializes in delta hedging. A self-taught trader, Sachin has a passion for volatility trading and stock trading. Sachin loves to hone his skills by reading up on new strategies and techniques as well as taking part in industry events. In addition to being a successful entrepreneur, Sachin also takes pleasure in photography - as a hobby.

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