Weekly Analysis, Strategies and Trend for December 18–22, 2023 - The WeeklyTrade
Read the post to know the latest Stock Market Weekly Analysis, Strategies and Trends based on the Technical chart and open interest data for December 18–22, 2023
Hello Guys, I hope you are doing well. If you are following me, you know that I have shared this weekly newsletter that covers weekly analysis and option strategies for the coming week 3 years ago.
I have been writing this newsletter continuously for the last 3 years. In 2023, I have published fewer newsletters due to personal commitments. But I'm committed to sharing whatever I have learned so far. So I'm starting this newsletter again.
I'm making some changes in this newsletter. Adding a few more data points and removing a few too. But my whole intention is to provide a clear picture of the market so that we can make some better decisions in the coming week.
This is the advanced version of our previous weekly articles. I have divided this newsletter into four parts. Every part is full of valuable information, but as you know, nothing is perfect, so your valuable feedback is highly appreciated.
Without wasting your time, Let’s start with our part segment, i.e. Weekly Market Outlook
Sachin Sival
Weekly Market Outlook and Important levels
In this section of our weekly market newsletter,. I will share the weekly market summary and try to find the trend and levels for the coming week. So read it carefully, and if you have any queries, feel free to type them in the comment box.
Once again, Indian markets remained volatile in the week gone by and settled higher as we saw buying interest in most of the sectors, especially mid-caps and small caps.
FIIs are the net buyers throughout this December month. Bought more than 18000 cr equity in this this week itself. Which is good sign for the whole market.
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Technical Outlook of Nifty and BankNifty
Let us look at the chart to understand the trend based on the technicals:
Technical outlook of Nifty and Important levels
If you look at the chart, you can clearly see that Nifty is in complete uptrend and there is no sign of any weakness. So don't take any contra trade here.
Based on Fibonacci Extension tool, 21488.50 is acting as the immediate resistance that Nifty has hit on Friday. Now if Nifty manage to sustain above in the coming week, then we may see the next target of 22210 in the near term.
So plan your trades accordingly. I suggest, don't take any contra trade here and follow the trend.
Important levels for coming week:
- Immediate Support levels are: 20920 & 20520
- Immediate Resistance levels are: 20488 & 222100
So as per the chart, there is no sign of a weakness and we may see some more upside levels if Nifty manage to hold the rally.
Technical outlook of BankNifty and Important levels
Almost the same setup we can see in BankNifty.
After a breakout from it's all time high (43610.40), we have seen a sharp upside rally in the BankNifty that manages to touched a new all-time of 48219.95 on Friday.
The setup we seen on chart, looks completely bullish and the buying we saw on Friday, indicates some more upside levels in the coming week.
As per Fibonacci Extension tool, BankNifty touched its immediate target of 48200 in Friday. Now if it manage to sustain above this level on then the next target would be 49860 in the near terms.
Important levels for coming week:
- Immediate Support levels are: 46890 & 45980
- Immediate Resistance levels are: 48200 & 49860
Based on the chart, trend looks completely bullish. So I suggest that trade with bullish strategies only.
Implied volatility (IV) of Nifty stands at 10.08. The India VIX for the week closed at 13.12, which was UP by 3.6% than the previous week.
The PCR OI for the week closed at 1.46. Technically, both indices are still holding well above their long-term moving averages on daily charts. However, secondary oscillators suggest some consolidation in the prices at the current juncture.
Sachin Sival
Market Outlook based Open Interest for the coming week
In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share my view and analysis of open interest data. We will try to find the important support, resistance, and range of the market for the coming week.
Nifty Option Chain analysis
Based on option chain data, the highest open interest stands at 21500 CE and 21300 PE, followed by 21700 CE and 212200 PE. The PCR of all strikes is 1.1, which indicates a neutral market. PCR at 21200 stands at 3.3, which is acting as an immediate support level.
The put-call ratio at 21700 stands at 0.05, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, the important indicator “Options Pain” is at 21300, indicating weekly expiry at 21300. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.
Significant open interest buildup on the PUT sides indicates that Nifty is getting good support from lower levels and expected to go higher in the coming week.
Based on option chain data, 21700 and 21800 are acting as good resistance levels. On the other hand 21300 & 21200 are acting as good resistance levels for coming expiry.
Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest,. Just enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.
BankNifty Option Chain analysis
Based on option chain data, the highest open interest stands at 48000 CE and 47000 PE, followed by 49000 CE and 47500 PE. The PCR of all strikes is 1, which indicates a neutral market. PCR at 47500 stands at 3.88, which is acting as an immediate support level.
The put-call ratio at 49000 stands at 0.01, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, the important indicator “Options Pain” is at 48000, indicating weekly expiry at 48000. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.
Significant open interest buildup on the PUT sides indicates that Nifty is getting good support from lower levels.
Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest,. Just enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.
Weekly Options Strategies for December 21, Expiry
In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share weekly option strategies for the coming expiration with adjustments. So watch this space for limited-risk weekly option strategies.
Nifty weekly Option Strategy for December 21 Expiry
Possible adjustments for Nifty weekly Option Strategy
Initially, you can follow 21200 as stoploss for this strategy. It means square off if you find Nifty is giving a breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.
If you find that Nifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 21200, then book profit in sold call and bring it down to 21600 levels.
There are some more adjustments, we will initiate and teach in Mentorship Program.
If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, you can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.
BankNifty weekly Option Strategy for April 21st Expiry
Possible adjustments for BankNifty weekly Option Strategy
Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 47700 for this strategy. It means square off if you find BankNifty is giving a breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.
If you find that BankNifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 47700, then square off the sold call and bring it down to 44700 levels.
If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, you can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.
Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to this weekly market newsletter. You can ask any question related to options trading in the comment box.
If you need more real-time assistance on the Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly expiry strategies or want to deploy these hedging strategies for monthly Income, you can take advantage of our premium subscription or open a trading account with us, and you will get real-time assistance every month on these option hedging strategies. You can contact us on WhatsApp.
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Disclaimer: – we are not SEBI research analyst. Views are posted in this weekly market newsletter only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline for interpreting specified analysis methods. This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.
