Weekly Chart Analysis and Trading Strategies for 06th October Expiry

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Hello guys, I hope you are doing well. In this edition of our weekly market newsletter (Weekly Indian Market Outlook), I will cover the weekly Indian market outlook, weekly chart analysis of the Nifty and BankNifty, and trading strategies for weekly income.

Before getting started on our weekly chart analysis and trading strategies, let’s talk about one of the main problems that the majority of people are currently experiencing. That is “High Volatility”.

No matter how experienced you are as a trader, a highly volatile market can be a challenge. In this blog post, I’ll share some tips on how to deal with a highly volatile market.

How to deal with a highly volatile market?

Here are some things you can do to keep your trading on track during periods of high volatility:

  • Stay calm and focused on your long-term goals. It’s easy to get distracted in the heat of the moment when all around you is chaos and pandemonium. But remember why you’re here: no matter what happens in the short term, markets always revert back to normal over time. That gives everyone who has the foresight to invest wisely an opportunity to profit handsomely from their insight and patience.
  • Take advantage of opportunities that arise during periods of turmoil. The easiest way for new traders to lose money is by trying too hard not to lose money. When volatility spikes and markets plummet across the board, there’s often an opportunity lurking right below the surface for anyone brave enough to take it. So don’t run away from your positions—keep them as they are until conditions improve or until they become profitable again given new developments in the situation at hand.
  • Make sure that you understand what moves asset prices before deciding whether or not to buy or sell anything . This is perhaps one of the most important advice we can give—it’s especially true when markets turn volatile and panic ensues. Before jumping into action, make sure that you have a strong understanding of why things happen so that you can react in a timely manner because after all, knowledge is power!

Other tips for trading in a volatile market include:

  1. Understand your risk appetite: Before you start trading in a highly volatile market, it’s important to understand your risk appetite. How much risk are you willing to take? What are your goals? Once you have a good understanding of your risk appetite, you can start to develop a trading plan that aligns with your goals.
  2. Stay disciplined: Discipline is key when trading in a highly volatile market. It’s important to stick to your trading plan and not let emotions get in the way of your decisions. When the market is volatile, it’s easy to get caught up in the moment and make impulsive decisions. But if you can stay disciplined, you’ll be more likely to succeed in the long run.
  3. Have a plan B: No matter how good your trading plan is, there’s always a chance that things can go wrong. That’s why it’s important to have a plan B. What will you do if the market doesn’t go the way you expect? Having a backup plan can help you stay calm and focused if the market takes a turn for the worse.
  4. Be prepared to take some losses: In a highly volatile market, it’s impossible to avoid losses entirely. Even the best traders will experience losses at some point. The key is to manage your risk and stay disciplined. If you can do that, you’ll be in a good position to weather the storm and come out ahead in the end.
  5. Don’t forget to review your performance: Once the dust has settled, it’s important to take a step back and review your performance. What worked well? What could you have done better? What can you learn from your experience? By taking the time to reflect on your performance, you can improve your trading strategy and increase your chances of success in the future. 

I hope these tips have been helpful. Remember, a volatile market can be challenging, but with the right approach, you can still be successful.

Weekly Chart Analysis and Trading Strategies:

The market had a gap-down opening to the week and experienced a sharp decline in the first four trading sessions. However, on Friday, we witnessed a swift recovery from lower levels that managed to mitigate some loss and enabled Nifty to close with a weekly loss of 1.34% and BankNifty to close with a loss of 2.31%.


Weekly Chart Analysis of Nifty and BankNifty

Now let’s look at the weekly chart first to know the important levels:

Now if you look at the weekly chart of Nifty and BankNifty, you can easily find that both the indices are trading in a range from last one year. And there is no clear sign of any breakout or breakdown. Broad Range for Nifty is 15500 – 18000 and for BankNifty, it’s 32000 – 41800.

So we can say that medium term trend is sideways. We can follow “Sell on Resistance and Buy on Support” strategy until we are not getting any fresh breakout or breakdown from the above given range.

Daily Chart Analysis of Nifty and BankNifty

Let’s start with the Nifty chart first. If you look at the nifty chart, you can see that Nifty made a weekly low of 16747 which is in the range of 38.2% – 50% retracement tool. This range acts as the confirmation of the current short term trend.

So in other words, we can say that Nifty may go up till 23.6% retracement level to fall again. Now 17000 is the level we need to keep in mind. If Nifty manage to sustain above this level then we may see some more recovery till 17500 this week. Below 17000, Nifty may slip again till 16600.

Trade of the week: You can wait till Nifty reach 17500 and then short if you get a bearish candle on daily chart. I will share my trade in my Telegram Channel. You can follow that too.

BankNifty also giving the same setup as Nifty is showing on chart. Got a reversal from lower level. If Manage to sustain above 38200 then it may go till 39600 in the coming sessions.

Important support and resistance levels in BankNifty are 37000 and 39600 respectively. We can keep same (Sell On Rise) approach in BankNifty also. Let BankNifty go till 39600 first and then short it after a bearish candle on daily chart.

Tip for the week: Don’t go long or short very aggressively. Let market give a proper indication and then entre in any trade.

If you are trading intraday and wanted to know how I’m taking my trades then you must join our Telegram Channel. In this FREE Telegram channel, Daily I’m sharing my personal trades and the logic behind these trade.

Trading Strategies for the Coming weekly expiry

In the above section. we have analyze chart and found the range based on the chart. Now before we create any strategy, let’s look at the open interest data to check the range for coming week.

  • Nifty Open Interest Analysis:
    • Highest OI is at 16700 PE & 17500 CE. So the support is at 16700 & Resistance is at 17500 for the coming weekly expiry.
    • Max pain is at 17100.
  • BankNifty Open Interest Analysis:
    • Highest OI is at 37500 PE & 40000 CE. So the support is at 37500 & Resistance is at 40000 for the coming weekly expiry.
    • Max pain is at 38500

Based on the OI data, range is high due to high volatility. So today, I’m sharing a premium strategy that has a high probability of success.

Trading Strategies for the Coming weekly expiry

Banknifty option trading strategy

You can see this strategy has a 71% probability of success. For risk management, you can keep a stoploss of ₹6000 as MTM loss.

We teach this strategy in our course. You can enroll to learn weekly expiry strategy with predefined rules of entry and exit.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Much Check this also- 

Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to this weekly Indian market Outlook. You can ask any question related to options trading in the comment box.

If you need More real-time assistance on the Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly expiry strategy or want to deploy these hedging strategies for monthly Income, Can take our premium subscription and you will get real-time assistance every month on these Options hedging strategies. You can contact us on WhatsApp.

Options Strategies – A Mentorship Program

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DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Views are posted in this weekly market newsletter only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting specified analysis methods.  This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.

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Sachin Sival is the founder and CEO of Replete Equities, an options trading company that specializes in delta hedging. A self-taught trader, Sachin has a passion for volatility trading and stock trading. Sachin loves to hone his skills by reading up on new strategies and techniques as well as taking part in industry events. In addition to being a successful entrepreneur, Sachin also takes pleasure in photography - as a hobby.

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