The WeeklyTrade - Best Weekly Indian Market Outlook [Issue -3]

Hello Guys, I hope you are doing good. This is the third issue of our weekly market newsletter (Indian market outlook). This weekly newsletter will cover the weekly Indian market outlook, Important levels, sector analysis, a few stock analyses, and option hedging strategies for Monthly income.

This is the advanced version of our previous weekly Indian market outlook articles. I have divided this newsletter into 5 parts. Every part is full of valuable information but as you know nothing is perfect so your valuable feedback is highly required.

So without wasting your time, Let’s start with our part segment i.e. Weekly India Market Outlook

Weekly Indian Market Outlook and Important levels

In this section of our weekly market newsletter. I will share the weekly Indian market summary and try to find the trend and levels for the coming week. So read it carefully and if you have any queries feel free to type in the comment box.

This week also volatility in the domestic markets continued to rule on rising inflation, possible interest rate hikes and fluctuating oil prices ahead of the monthly expiry of April series derivatives. It could be seen that foreign players are in a selling mood while domestic investors looked active and has focused on defensives sectors such as Consumption, Infra & capital goods.

On the earning front, banking sector is staging a strong rebound with good credit growth and improving asset quality.

Going forward volatility will continue to rule due to weakening global cues. The Fed policy outcome on May 5th will set the tone for the short-term trend of the market. As we are in result session, we may see stock specific action in the market.

Besides, inflation worries, crude prices, and the war in Ukraine also kept the investors cautious.

Let us look at the chart to understand the trend based on the technical:

Weekly Analysis and Important levels for Nifty

As I have shared in the last weekly market newsletter, the Nifty is trading in a wide range of 17500 – 16800.

Despite wild movement this week, the Nifty still manage to trade in this range. That indicated a neutral trend in Nifty.

After trading range-bound in tho week, On Friday we saw a sharp decline in the last hour in Nifty that initiate a caution button for the next few sessions. Although the trend looks sideways and the Nifty still holding its immediate support level i.e. 16900, we can neglect the possibilities of some more downside levels in the coming weeks.

On the upside, 17572 is the immediate resistance and a breakout will generate a new BUY signal in Nifty. Right now Nifty is trading in a range of 17500 – 16900 and there is no clear sign of any directional trade.

Volatility is also on the higher side, which is giving a good chance to deploy some limited risk range-bound strategies for the coming week expiry.

If you don’t know how to deploy these range-bound strategies, can learn from our Mentorship program. Hit the below button to know more:

Weekly Analysis and Important levels for BankNifty

Almost the Same setup we can see in BankNifty. After a gap down opening BankNifty took support around 35750 which is acting as an immediate support level and bound back till it’s immediate resistance level i.e. 36650. Now these two levels are the crucial zone for the further movement in Banknifty.

Don’t forget that this zone (35750 – 36650) is the reversal zone too as per the Fibonacci retracement tool. So any breakout or breakdown will lead to the further levels. Last week’s trade is still active. Check details below:

An aggressive trader can take a short bet here with a stoploss above 37500 for the target of 34800 and 32800. A safe trader can wait for a breakdown from 3800.

As a safe trader, I prefer to trade with a limited risk range-bound strategy here. That I will share in the next section of this weekly newsletter.

Derivative Analysis of Nifty and BankNifty

Once again volatility gripped the Indian markets in the week gone by as Nifty and Bank nifty both, went through a roller coaster ride.

May series begin on a negative note as selling pressure was observed in Friday’s session across the board with Nifty seen ending the week above 17100 mark while Banking index managed to hold 36000 levels on the local bourses.

From the derivative front, put writers remained active at 17100 & 17000 strikes while call writers added hefty open interest at 17300 strike.

Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 18.45% while that for put options closed at 19.89. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 19.38%.

PCR OI for the week closed at 1.70.

For upcoming sessions, you need to remain cautious as the market could get deeper cuts, if it manages to sustain below its 200 DEMA on a daily interval.

In the upcoming sessions, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 16900-17400 levels while Bank nifty could sail in a zone of 35200 – 36900 range. On higher side, Nifty needs to give a decisive move beyond 17500 levels for any further upside.

Sector analysis – Weekly Indian Market Outlook

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter. I will try to analyze the different sectors. We will pick 2-3 sectors that we can keep on the radar for the coming week.

Most of the sectors are giving the same setup as Nifty is giving and closed in red except few like Nifty FMCG and AUTO. Top gainer sectors are FMCG and AUTO closed with a gain of 1.1% and 0.5% respectively whereas top losers are Nifty Media and Nifty PSE closed with a loss of 6.2% and 4.4% respectively.

Selling presure seen in Midcap and smallcap stocks too. Nifty midcal 250 close with a loss of 3.1% where Nifty smallcase 100 closed with a loss of 2.7% this week.

In most of the sectors, we can see some profit booking from the higher levels. For the next week, you can keep the Nifty IT and Nifty PSUBANK sectors on your Radar with a bearish view.. Let us look at the chart:

All the sectors like Midcaps, small caps, IT, etc are in a bearish trend and we may see some more downside levels in these sectors.

Nifty IT sector has given a fresh breakdown from it’s important support level so this could be on your selling list. MindTree, Intellect and LTI are the most week stocks on this sector.

So overall trend of the market is weak and we may expect some consolidation with a downside movement.

Stocks to buy for short term today

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share a few stocks that look good for a short-term view based on purely technical. To find these stocks I’m just scanning stocks those giving a fresh breakout from their 52-week high and volumes are quite impressive. So this week’s stocks are:

1- MRPL(Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Limited): CMP: 73.75

In the last couple of sessions, we have seen a very good buying interest in this stock. Volumes are quite impressive and give a good breakout from its 200 DSMA.

Looks good for a short to medium term prospective for the targets of 83.8 and 98.8. For short term you can keep a stoploss below 61 and if you can hold for medium term can keep a stoploss below 50.

You can invest in lots. Like Buy 50% quantities now and rest 50% after a small cut till 60 with a stoploss below 50.

Performace – last week’s picks

Open Interest Analysis for the coming week

In this segment of our weekly Indian market Outlook newsletter, I will share my view and analysis about open Interest data. We will try to find the important support, resistance and the range of market for the coming week.

Nifty Option Chain analysis – Weekly Indian Market Outlook

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 18000 CE & 17000 PE, followed by 17300 CE & 17200 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.7, which indicates a neutral market. PCR at 17000 stands at 4.49, which is acting as an immediate support level. Second support stands at 16800 with a PCR of 10.

The Put-call ratio at 17500 stands at 0.11, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, the important indicator “Options Pain” is at 17200, indicating weekly expiry at 17200. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup on the CALL sides indicates that Nifty is facing good resistance from higher levels. Based on Option chain data, 17000 and 16800 are acting as good support levels. On the other hand 17300, and 17500 are acting as good resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

BankNifty Option Chain analysis

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 37000 CE & 35500 PE, followed by 36500 CE & 36000 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.57, which indicates an oversold market. PCR at 35500 stands at 10, which is acting as an immediate support level.

The Put-call ratio at 37000 stands at 0.06, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, the important indicator “Options Pain” is at 36300, indicating weekly expiry at 36300. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup on the CALL sides indicates that Nifty is facing good resistance from higher levels. Based on Option chain data, 35500 and 35000 are acting as good support levels. On the other hand 36500, and 37000 are acting as good resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Weekly Options Strategies for 05th May Expiry

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share weekly option Strategies for coming expiry with adjustments. So watch this space for limited risk weekly option strategies.

Nifty weekly Option Strategy for 05th May Expiry

Possible adjustments for Nifty weekly Option Strategy

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 16800 & 17400 for this strategy. Means square off if you find nifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that Nifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 16800, then square off the call spread and bring it down to 400 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 17400. You can shift your put spread to 400 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

BankNifty weekly Option Strategy for 05th May Expiry

Possible adjustments for BankNifty weekly Option Strategy

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 35300 & 36900 for this strategy. Means square off if you find banknifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that BankNifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 35300, then square off the call spread and bring it down to 1000 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 36900. You can shift your put spread to 1000 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Much Check this also- 

• Why is psychology important in options trading?
• 3 Simple Options Strategies for High Volatility
• Non-Directional Option Strategy: The Best Trading Strategy for Volatility

Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to this weekly Indian market Outlook. You can ask any question related to options trading in the comment box.

If you need More real-time assistance on the Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly expiry strategy or want to deploy these hedging strategies for monthly Income, Can take our premium subscription or open a trading account with us and you will get real-time assistance every month on these Options hedging strategies. You can contact us on WhatsApp.

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Best Option Strategy for Intraday in Nifty and BankNifty

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DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Views are posted in this weekly market newsletter only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting specified analysis methods.  This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.