Weekly Market analysis with option strategies for 03rd March Expiry

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Hello guys. I hope you all are doing good. The market is highly volatile. In fact, 2022 is the year of high volatility. In my weekly market analysis and options strategies post, I’m sharing that we should trade with proper risk management.

Risk management is the only holy grail to get success in stock trading. Analyze your risk profile first and choose a product or segment to trade that suits your risk profile.

This week was highly volatile due to Russia – Ukraine crisis. We saw some big movement in both directions this week. In this type of market, it is tough to make a directional bias, so we should trade with limited risk strategies.

Because volatility is high, so premiums also increased, and when premiums are high, time to create some credit spreads. But that’s not mean that you should initiate short strangle or straddles. It would be best if you limit our risk instead of taking unlimited risk bets.

You can keep some extra risk on the upside, but your risk must be limited on the downside. The reason is: You will get time to adjust in the upside movement, but downside movement will not give you time to adjust your positions.

In simple words, the Downside movement is always strong compared to the upside movement, so we have to lock our risk on the downside. Choose your strategies accordingly.

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Let’s come to our weekly analysis and option strategies for 03rd March 2022 weekly Expiry. Let’s look at the chart first,

Nifty weekly market analysis and options strategies

Nifty weekly market analysis and options strategies

This week we saw some wild movement due to the global crisis. Nifty broke its previous support level 16850 and made a fresh low of 16203.25.

In my last weekly market update post, I have said that 16800 – 17000 is acting as an immediate support zone for the coming week, and a breakdown will lead to the next levels at 16500 & 16000.

This week nifty hit our first support level at 16500 and almost hit the second support level at 16000. Later we saw some recovery that helps Nifty to stay above 16500 on 25th February.

Now if you look at the Fibonacci tool you will find that 16377 & 15852 are acting as the important levels. If Nifty manages to sustain above this zone then we may see some recovery from lower levels a breakdown from 15852 will drag nifty to the lower level till 15100.

The overall trend is DOWN and you can follow a sell-on-rise strategy. You can initiate a short trade around 16900. But don’t take high risks and keep your position with a proper hedge. Use tight stop losses for your long or short positions or use options to limit your overnight risk.

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Nifty weekly market analysis based on option chain data

Nifty option chain data

Option chain data indicates that the highest Open interest is at 17500 CE & 16000 PE, followed by 18000 CE & 16500 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.75, which indicates a neutral market. PCR at 16500 stands at 2.38, which is acting as an immediate support level.

The Put-call ratio at 17000 stands at 0.14, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, an important indicator, i.e., Option Pain, is at 16650, indicating weekly expiry at 16650. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup around both sides indicates that nifty is facing good support from both side levels and expecting some rangebound activity in the coming week. Based on Option chain data, 16500 & 16000 are the support levels & 17000 & 17500 are the resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participants’ behavior if you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Nifty Weekly Expiry Strategy: Iron Condor

nifty weekly option strategy

Possible adjustments:

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 16150 & 17050 for this strategy. Means square off if you find nifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that Nifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 16100, then square off call spread and bring it down to 500 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 17100. You can shift your put spread to 500 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enrol in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Bank Nifty Weekly analysis with weekly expiry strategy

Banknifty weekly analysis

This week we saw some wild movement due to the global crisis. BankNifty broke its previous support level 37000 and made a fresh low of 34991.35.

In my last weekly market update post, I have said that 36400 is acting as an immediate support level for the coming week, and a breakdown will lead to the next levels at 35000 & 34000. The first target already hit in BankNifty.

On Friday we saw a sharp recovery from lower levels that helps Banknifty manage to hold its crucial support level i.e. 36400.

The overall trend is DOWN, and a short trade is advisable below 35800 for the target of 35000 & 34000. But it would be best if you kept your position with a proper hedge. Use tight stop losses for your long or short positions or use options to limit your downside risk.

On the upper side, 38800 is the crucial resistance level and a long trade will trigger only after a successful breakout from 38800.

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Pro tip: High IV (implied Volatility) is giving a good opportunity to initiate limited risk options strategies. High IV means more premium received as credit. That will increase the probability and reduce the risk per spread. So think about limited risk strategies.

Bank Nifty weekly market analysis based on option chain data

banknifty weekly open interest chart

Option chain data indicates that the highest Open interest is at 37000 CE & 36000 PE, followed by 38000 CE & 35000 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.89, which indicates a neutral market. PCR at 35500 stands at 6.93, which is acting as an immediate support level.

The Put-call ratio at 37000 stands at 0.13, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, an important indicator, i.e., Option Pain, is at 36400, indicating weekly expiry at 36400. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup around both sides indicates that Banknifty is facing good support from both side levels and expecting some range-bound activity in the coming week. Based on Option chain data, 35500 & 35000 are the support levels & 37000 & 37500 are the resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participants’ behavior if you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

BankNifty Weekly Expiry Strategy:

banknifty weekly option strategy

Possible adjustments:

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 35300 & 37800 for this strategy. Means square off if you find banknifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that BankNifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 35300, then square off call spread and bring it down to 1500 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 37800. You can shift your put spread to 1500 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enrol in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Much Check this also– Performance of the Option strategies, Nifty & BankNifty Weekly Analysis with Option strategy, Nifty Option Strategy for Budget SessionA low-risk options strategy in LICHSGFINAn iron condor options strategy in ICICIBANKReverse Jade Lizard options strategy in UPLA high probability options strategy in YESBANK

Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to weekly market update and options strategies. You can ask any question related to option trading in the comment box.

If you need More real-time assistance on Nifty and Bank nifty weekly market update and options strategies Can take our premium subscription or open a trading account with us and you will get real-time assistance every month on these weekly options strategies. You can contact us on WhatsApp

*( Please avoid any question like which Call or Put we should buy in the coming week).


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DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Weekly market update, Views or the options strategies posted here only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting specified analysis methods.  This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.

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Sachin Sival is the founder and CEO of Replete Equities, an options trading company that specializes in delta hedging. A self-taught trader, Sachin has a passion for volatility trading and stock trading. Sachin loves to hone his skills by reading up on new strategies and techniques as well as taking part in industry events.In addition to being a successful entrepreneur, Sachin also takes pleasure in photography - as a hobby.

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