The WeeklyTrade - Best Weekly Market Newsletter [Issue -2]

Hello Guys, I hope you are doing good. This is the second issue of our weekly market newsletter. This weekly newsletter will cover the weekly market outlook, Important levels, sector analysis, a few stock analyses, and option hedging strategies for Monthly income.

This is the advanced version of our previous weekly articles. I have divided this newsletter into 5 parts. Every part is full of valuable information but as you know nothing is perfect so your valuable feedback is highly required.

So without wasting your time, Let’s start with our part segment i.e. Weekly Market Outlook

Weekly Market Outlook and Important levels

In this section of our weekly market newsletter. I will share the weekly market summary and try to find the trend and levels for the coming week. So read it carefully and if you have any queries feel free to type in the comment box.

Once again Indian markets remained volatile in the week gone by and settled marginally lower, as traders remained sidelined amid global market sentiments. FIIs are the net seller and sold almost 23000 cr in the cash market in the last 2 weeks. It indicates their supper bearish view of the Indian market.

Domestic investors’ focus has turned to the first-quarter earnings season. The Q4FY22 earnings season has begun on a mixed note with small disappointments from a couple of large sectoral majors. Factors such as geopolitical worries, inflation fears, and likely hikes in Fed rates are making the investors nervous. Meanwhile, IMF has said that India is projected to be the fastest-growing large economy in the world in the current year.

Besides, inflation worries, crude prices, and the war in Ukraine also kept the investors cautious.

Let us look at the chart to understand the trend based on the technicals:

Weekly Analysis and Important levels for Nifty

After taking resistance on the declined trendline, We saw a sharp decline in the Nifty that leads to the Gap-down opening on Monday. On Tuesday, after a big selling, Nifty manages to take support around 16950 which is an immediate support level for Nifty now.

Based on the chart it’s clearly seen that the Nifty is in the complete grip of bears and 16950 is the only hope for any recovery. A breakdown from 16950 will open a new target of 16400 on the downside.

On the upside, 17572 is the immediate resistance and a breakout will generate a new BUY signal in Nifty. Right now Nifty is trading in a range of 17570 – 16950 and there is no clear sign of any directional trade.

Volatility is also increasing and monthly expiry is also there in the coming week, which is giving a good chance to deploy some limited risk range-bound strategies for the current month’s expiry.

If you don’t know how to deploy these range-bound strategies, can learn from our Mentorship program. Hit the below button to know more:

Weekly Analysis and Important levels for BankNifty

Almost the Same setup we can see in BankNifty. After a gap down opening BankNifty took support around 36080 which is a good resistance level. Now as you can see BankNifty closed below 36080, There is a sell signal triggered for the next target of 34800.

34800 could be the last hope of any recovery. Right now the trend is Neutral but a breakdown from 34800 will change the trend to a complete downtrend.

An aggressive trader can take a short bet here with a stoploss above 37500 for the target of 34800 and 32800. A safe trader can wait for a breakdown from 3800.

As a safe trader, I prefer to trade with a limited risk range-bound strategy here. That I will share in the next section of this weekly newsletter.

Derivative Analysis of Nifty and BankNifty

From the derivative front, option writers were seen active at 17500 call strike and 17000 put strike. With overall correction in markets, call writers were seen as aggressive and they had added hefty open interest as compared to put writers.

Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 16.85% while for put options, it closed at 17.89. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 17.85%.

PCR OI for the week closed at 0.94 lower than the previous week, which indicates more call writing than put writing. On the technical front, both the indices are trading close to their 200 DMA on daily charts.

For upcoming sessions, you need to remain cautious as the market could get deeper cuts, if it manages to slide down its 200 DEMA on a daily interval.

In the upcoming sessions, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 16900-17400 levels while Bank nifty could sail in a zone of 35200 – 36900 range. On higher side, Nifty needs to give a decisive move beyond 17400 levels for any further upside.

Sector analysis – Weekly Market Newsletter

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter. I will try to analyze the different sectors. We will pick 2-3 sectors that we can keep on the radar for the coming week.

Most of the sectors are giving the same setup as Nifty is giving and closed in except Nifty Auto and Energy. Top gainer sectors are Auto and Energy closed with a gain of 3.1% and 2.4% respectively whereas top losers are Nifty IT and Nifty Media closed with a loss of 5.6% and 4.1% respectively..

In most of the sectors, we can see some profit booking from the higher levels. For the next week, you can keep the auto sector on your Radar. Let us look at the chart:

The auto sector has given a good breakout from its reversal zone (50% – 61.8% retracement zone) but still looks promising for a bullish view and heading towards its next target of 11350. So this sector should be on your radar for a bullish view.

All the sectors like Midcaps, small caps, IT, etc are in a bearish trend and we may see some more downside levels in these sectors.

So overall trend of the market is weak and we may expect some consolidation with a downside movement.

Stocks to buy for short term today

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share a few stocks that look good for a short-term view based on purely technical. To find these stocks I’m just scanning stocks those giving a fresh breakout from their 52-week high and volumes are quite impressive. So this week’s stocks are:

1- CEAT: CMP: 1185.30

In the last couple of sessions, we have seen a very good buying interest in the stock. Volumes are quite impressive and give a good breakout from its downward trending line.

The only hurdle is it’s 200 DMA which is at 1195. A Sustainable breakout from its 200 DMA will lead to its upside target of 1340. You can bet on it on CMP and keep a stoploss below 1050.

2- Borosil Renewable LTD – CMP: 782.35

Brorsil Renewable LTD (BORORENW) has given a very good breakout from its 52-week high with decent volumes. You can trade in two lots in it. 50% quantity at CMP and the next 50% near 750.

Can keep a stoploss below 670 for a target of 18% – 24% in short term.

Performace – last week’s picks

Open Interest Analysis for the coming week

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share my view and analysis about open Interest data. We will try to find the important support, resistance and the range of market for the coming week.

Nifty Option Chain analysis

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 18000 CE & 17000 PE, followed by 17500 CE & 16000 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.72, which indicates a neutral market. PCR at 17000 stands at 4.35, which is acting as an immediate support level.

The Put-call ratio at 17500 stands at 0.33, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, the important indicator “Options Pain” is at 17300, indicating weekly expiry at 17300. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup on the CALL sides indicates that Nifty is facing good resistance from higher levels. Based on Option chain data, 17000 and 16700 are acting as good support levels. On the other hand 17500, and 17800 are acting as good resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

BankNifty Option Chain analysis

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 37000 CE & 36000 PE, followed by 37500 CE & 35000 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.57, which indicates an oversold market. PCR at 35500 stands at 8.46, which is acting as an immediate support level.

The Put-call ratio at 37000 stands at 0.37, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, the important indicator “Options Pain” is at 36400, indicating weekly expiry at 36400. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup on the CALL sides indicates that Nifty is facing good resistance from higher levels. Based on Option chain data, 35500 and 35000 are acting as good support levels. On the other hand 36500, and 37000 are acting as good resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Weekly Options Strategies for 28th April Expiry

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share weekly option Strategies for coming expiry with adjustments. So watch this space for limited risk weekly option strategies.

Nifty weekly Option Strategy for 28th April Expiry

Possible adjustments for Nifty weekly Option Strategy

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 16900 & 17500 for this strategy. Means square off if you find nifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that Nifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 16900, then square off the call spread and bring it down to 400 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 17500. You can shift your put spread to 400 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

BankNifty weekly Option Strategy for 28th April Expiry

Possible adjustments for BankNifty weekly Option Strategy

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 35200 & 36900 for this strategy. Means square off if you find banknifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that BankNifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 35200, then square off the call spread and bring it down to 1000 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 36900. You can shift your put spread to 1000 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Much Check this also- 

• Why is psychology important in options trading?
• 3 Simple Options Strategies for High Volatility
• Non-Directional Option Strategy: The Best Trading Strategy for Volatility

Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to this weekly market newsletter. You can ask any question related to options trading in the comment box.

If you need More real-time assistance on the Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly expiry strategy or want to deploy these hedging strategies for monthly Income, Can take our premium subscription or open a trading account with us and you will get real-time assistance every month on these Options hedging strategies. You can contact us on WhatsApp.

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Best Option Strategy for Intraday in Nifty and BankNifty

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DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Views are posted in this weekly market newsletter only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting specified analysis methods.  This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.